Fudge Sunday - Cheap as Chips in 2022
This week we are looking ahead to Cheap as Chips in 2022!
Getting Informed
You may recall that I use Twitter in an ephemeral way. I use Tweepy to cleanup after I get my ideas tweeted that might survive being added in an issue of my newsletter and then (maybe one day) on my blog.
Sometimes I’m doing meta commentary on @Techmeme. Sometimes my meta commentary gets picked up by @TechmemeChatter when linked to on techmeme.com from @jaycuthrell even back in the olden times of my original @qthrul handle.
Recently, Techmeme linked to coverage of chipmaker spend reaching $152B which is a +30% Y/Y increase. So, I looked back to 2011 supply chain for hard disk drives (HDD) and contrast this to the supply chain stories around semiconductors.
If chipmakers are on track to spend $152B on semiconductor fabrication facilities and the means of production it may mean we’re looking at 2017 era patterns. Arguably, we are very much on a path to being cheap as chips in 2022.
Report: chipmakers are on track to spend $152B on new fabs and production equipment in 2021, up 34% YoY, which is the strongest YoY growth since 2017
By Anton Shilov / AnandTech. View the full context on Techmeme.
My thinking at the time of this Techmeme coverage revolved around the idea that a pattern from 2011 might mean big things for 2022.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://twitter.com/jaycuthrell/status/1472761084113215498Flashback: In 2011, Thailand monsoon and rainfall flooding took lives, impacted lives, disrupted global manufacturing supply chains, and led to a year of hard disk drive shortages.
Now: Pandemic.
Soon: A “cheap as chips” future.📉
Images via @BlocksandFiles @Wikibon @backblaze https://t.co/oL636IaPg1 https://t.co/W3mmVNRya2
https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://twitter.com/jaycuthrell/status/1472761084113215498Via @Backblaze via @BlocksAndFiles
Via @BlocksAndFiles via @Wikibon
“Top 10 semiconductor foundries by market share” – @magicsilicon
https://twitter.com/magicsilicon/status/1471533764555669505?utm_campaign=Start%20the%20week%20more%20informed&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletterBe sure to check out my past coverage and shared trends of the semiconductors industry in Three recommendations walk into a bar BONUS section as well as And All Points In Between then Betting Odds and Ends Justify the Means of Production.
https://sunday.fudge.org/issues/fudge-sunday-three-recommendations-walk-into-a-bar-847670?utm_campaign=Start%20the%20week%20more%20informed&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletterAddendum (Reader Feedback)
Thanks for the rapid feedback from Greg Meyer on my reasoning above.
Here’s how I answered Greg’s questions on my reasons:
I see a few patterns in our modern demands…
- Chips are going into everything that has a physical void to fill
- Smart(er) devices is impacting wider numbers of supply chains
- Chips with radios that can access multiple networking standards are increasingly common
I see a few historical patterns as well…
- “Chip Dumping” and past press coverage of the 1980s i.e. https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/25/business/us-reaffirms-japan-chip-dumping.html
- “Copy Exactly” approaches becoming standardized across industry of the 1990s i.e. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/intel/copy_exactly!
- “Tick Tock” becoming an ingrained culture of expectation for technology refreshes in the 2000s i.e. https://www.extremetech.com/computing/127987-deliberate-excellence-why-intel-leads-the-world-in-semiconductor-manufacturing/
Disclosure
I am linking to my disclosure.
