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When We Was Chip Fab Focused

July 31, 2022 by Jay Cuthrell

George Harrison - When We Was Fab (1987)

Getting Informed

Fudge Sunday, as a newsletter, strives to be freighted with appetite to see around the corner for what’s next. This issue attempts to provide backscatter analysis for the future state of things.

Based on a sample size of [ checks notes… ] a few… polls are here to stay.🤣

If you’ve been a reader of this newsletter then you know I’ve got a few opinions. And as always, I’m curious about the opinions of my readers too.

The poll this week is to baseline where readers would assess impact for technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), pentatricopeptide repeats (PPR), fifth generation cellular networking (5G), and industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). Our next issue together looks forward to your opinions (votes!).

Woke up in a daze 🎶

So, what happens when computing becomes whim based infrastructure? 2 Also, what happens when the manual interactions of the present are replaced with informed actions with latencies that are imperceptible – as if these actions were connected to human intuition and our whims?

[ Twitter avatar for @danluu Dan Luu @danluuComputer latency: 1977-2017

danluu.com/input-lag/ ](https://twitter.com/danluu/status/945041778121629697?s=20&t=QKugSZn4V7TPIfQAvX1WAg)[9:21 PM ∙ Dec 24, 2017

3,296Likes1,630Retweets](https://twitter.com/danluu/status/945041778121629697?s=20&t=QKugSZn4V7TPIfQAvX1WAg)To realize this vision of the future, the notion of computation will need to be everywhere we can imagine today. Further, the perceived needs we collectively call technology will be directly influenced by this ubiquity and will manifest in the wake of the new reality.

Arrived like strangers in the night 🎶

Previously, we took a look at the likely impact as more semiconductor fabrication facilities come online and increased emphasis on investments.

Fudge SundayFudge Sunday - Cheap as Chips in 2022View online This week we are looking ahead to Cheap as Chips in 2022! Getting Informed You may recall that I use Twitter in an ephemeral way. I use Tweepy to cleanup after I get my ideas tweeted that might survive being added in an issue of my newsletter…Read morea year ago · Jay CuthrellSo, it’s fascinating to see how rapidly investment and expansion is happening. For example, filings coverage of the potential plans for a proposed $192B worth of eleven (11!) new fabs coming to Texas are just one indicator.3

Access to the right mix of tax incentives, seismic stability4, energy5, and water rights are another view into where the investments are likely to land. Which, as always, means that the placement of bets will continue to benefit the best fitting localities.

And if you think about it… it really is.And we did it all 🎶

At this point, the building blocks for the ubiquitous workload substrates are on the horizon. However, the building blocks are the first step of many to realize whim based infrastructure across AI/ML, AR/VR, 5G/IIoT, and arguably – on a long enough timeline – even the biological impacts from CRISPR/PPR.

But how soon will that horizon become just a moment away? Well, perhaps, to set context, consider this (very cherry picked) timeline of tweets as reminder of the impact of time and change:

~1 day ago…

[ Twitter avatar for @WhiteHouse The White House @WhiteHouseThe United States’ production of semiconductor chips declined from 40 percent to 12 percent, while China went from 2 percent to 16 percent.

Through the CHIPS for America Act, @POTUS has made it clear that the U.S. must lead the world in the production of semiconductor chips.](https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1553413861478367232?s=20&t=MD1HYV3d01SmZQod8k7psQ)[4:15 PM ∙ Jul 30, 2022

5,641Likes1,098Retweets](https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1553413861478367232?s=20&t=MD1HYV3d01SmZQod8k7psQ)~3 days ago…

Twitter avatar for @conorsen Conor Sen @conorsen60% of Amazon’s net revenue growth YoY was AWS.[8:16 PM ∙ Jul 28, 2022

254Likes33Retweets](https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1552749857500286976?s=20&t=azmPWrCjcA0LMHKi-JkAcA)~5 days ago…

[ Twitter avatar for @PGelsinger Pat Gelsinger @PGelsingerExciting news for Intel Foundry Services! @MediaTek plans to use Intel process technologies to manufacture chips for smart edge devices. Thrilled we can help MediaTek build a more resilient supply chain w/ our significant capacity in the U.S. and Europe. scq.ioIntel and MediaTek Form Foundry PartnershipMediaTek will use Intel Foundry Services to manufacture new chips for a range of smart edge devices.](https://twitter.com/PGelsinger/status/1551565382170775553?s=20&t=I1QAlra0yTdVxpibxDDWMQ)[1:49 PM ∙ Jul 25, 2022

214Likes35Retweets](https://twitter.com/PGelsinger/status/1551565382170775553?s=20&t=I1QAlra0yTdVxpibxDDWMQ)~1 year ago…

[ Twitter avatar for @ChadBown Chad P. Bown @ChadBownPresident Trump put 25% trade war tariffs on semiconductors beginning in July 2018. They “worked.” The US now imports *half as many* chips from China as it did pre-trade war. (That’s billions of fewer chips.)

Those missing chips have NOT been replaced by imports from elsewhere. Twitter avatar for @ForeignAffairs Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairsThe COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the extent of the semiconductor crisis triggered by the Trump administration’s trade policies, @ChadBown writes. Can the Biden administration’s new approach shore up this critical supply chain?
https://t.co/GUOiJvUzaa](https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1412879502989045761?s=20&t=oag73_jFSy2dSkPB1zBv7A)[9:01 PM ∙ Jul 7, 2021